Economist Julian Jessop’s forecast follows two years of damage to the global economy during the Covid pandemic. The expected growth comes in part as nations recover from the fall caused by various factors, as supply begins to meet demand again.
Sharing new data on Twitter, Mr Jessop wrote: “After a bigger fall in 2020 and initially a weaker recovery (due to Brexit), the UK caught up to the Eurozone in the last quarter of 2021.
“I expect the UK to get ahead in 2022.”
The self-proclaimed Brexit optimist then compared the UK to other EU countries.
He added: “Comparing Q4 2021 GDP with the pre-Covid level (Q4 201), France is still ahead, hats off!
“But on that basis at least, the UK did better than Italy, Germany and Spain.”
Mr Jessop also explained that the consumer price index (CPI) in France was much higher than expected.
The rise in the CPI came as a surprise after state intervention in the energy market.
Figures released by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) are also promising.
It says: “UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 1.3% in the fourth quarter (October to December) 2021, revised upwards from the first quarterly estimate of an increase by 1.0%.
“The level of GDP is now 0.1% lower than it was before the coronavirus (COVID-19) in the fourth quarter of 2019, revised from the previous estimate of 0.4% lower.
“Annual GDP in 2021 is now estimated to have increased by 7.4% (previously 7.5%), following a revised decline of 9.3% in 2020 (previously 9.4% decline).”
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While household costs are expected to rise with soaring energy prices, some economists predict slower growth.
Paul Dales, chief UK economist at consultancy Capital Economics, said the spending review suggested the squeeze in real incomes was starting to take hold, although the drop in the savings rate was providing a cushion.
Speaking to The Guardian, he said: “The 0.1% quarter-on-quarter decline in real household disposable income was smaller than expected.
“But this was the third decline in as many quarters and the sharp price increases ahead mean further falls are on the way.”
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Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, another consultancy, pointed out that output excluding government spending remained 2.9% below the pre-pandemic peak.
Mr Tombs said: “Exports were well down 15.7% from their level in the fourth quarter of 2019 – the worst performance in the G7, by far – well exceeding the 6.4% deficit in imports.
“Exports have consistently underperformed other advanced economies since the first quarter of 2021, suggesting Brexit is largely to blame.”
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The latest figures from the ONS for 2022 show that the UK is nevertheless maintaining its growth.
He said: “The UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 0.8% in January 2022 and is now 0.8% above its pre-coronavirus (COVID-19) level. ).”
Even more promising was the broad spectrum of the UK economy contributing to growth.
The ONS concluded: “All sectors contributed positively to GDP growth in January 2022.
“Services were the main driver with a contribution of 0.6 percentage points, with production and construction both contributing 0.1 percentage points.”